Basis
The difference between two specified reference prices, often a futures contract and its underlying reference. The subtraction order, contract, and timestamp belong with the number.
If basis is defined as futures minus the observed index, an 8,100 futures quote against a 7,800 index gives a basis of +300 points. The contract may settle later, so those 300 points can reflect expected performance before expiry rather than a pricing error.
Calibration
The degree to which stated forecast probabilities agree with observed frequencies over many comparable cases.
Among a large group of events assigned a 70% probability, roughly 70% should occur if that group is well calibrated. One correct season-ending prediction tells us very little about calibration on its own.
Champion / canonical reference
The model designated as the published reference. The label identifies which model anchors comparisons; its performance still depends on the forecast horizon, and each publication has its own timestamp and status.
A scenario can differ from the reference without replacing it. Registry designation, evidence for a target horizon, and the status of a specific serving publication should be read separately.
Contract multiplier
The currency amount associated with one index point of a futures contract. Use the exchange specification, not the site’s display scale.
Example: a 10-point move with a $10-per-point multiplier changes one contract’s P&L by $100 before costs; with $0.10 per point it changes by $1. Direction depends on whether the position is long or short.
FSPI
FutureSports Performance Indexes. Distinguish a rules-based index level from a forecast of its future value.
The official scoring rules translate recorded events into points. Our forecast estimates future events and index paths. Calling both numbers “FSPI” without an observed/forecast label can hide that distinction.
Margin
Collateral required to support a futures position. It is not a cap on possible losses or the same as notional exposure.
Initial margin supports opening a position; maintenance requirements determine the minimum ongoing support. A smaller deposit does not reduce the dollar effect of a given contract move.
Notional exposure
The reference exposure represented by a position. For a simple futures position, price times multiplier times contract count.
Example: a quote of 7,500 with a $10-per-point multiplier represents $75,000 for one contract. That is a reference exposure amount, not the daily P&L or a quoted broker deposit requirement.
Point-in-time information
Information available by a specified forecast origin. Observation time matters as well as the date an event occurred.
A report dated Monday but first obtained or published Wednesday cannot automatically be treated as information known to a Monday forecast. Later corrections and uncertain quote timestamps need explicit handling.
RAPM
Regularized adjusted plus-minus is a modeling approach that estimates player contributions while accounting for shared ice time and context.
Regularization pulls noisy estimates toward a common baseline. Because the estimate comes from a player’s observed context, it should not be read as the exact effect of placing him in any other lineup.
Roll
Closing or reducing exposure in one expiry and establishing exposure in another. Different contract prices and transaction costs affect the result.
Example: closing October exposure and opening November exposure changes which future settlement matters. The gap between quoted prices is not by itself the immediate cash profit or loss from the roll.
Scenario
A forecast under explicit alternative assumptions, separate from the unchanged reference model.
Example: reducing one player’s contribution for a specified future window tests an assumption. It neither reports an injury nor proves that an actual absence would cause exactly that change.
Bid–ask spread
The gap between the best displayed buying and selling prices. A last-trade price may not be available for a new order.
Example: a bid of 7,600 and ask of 7,604 implies a four-point spread. Buying at the ask and selling at the unchanged bid incurs that gap before commissions.
Expected goals (xG)
An estimate of scoring likelihood derived from shot or attempt characteristics. xG is model output, not an official goal count.
If a model assigns a shot a 0.10 scoring probability, its xG contribution is 0.10 whether that particular shot scores or misses. Aggregated xG can help describe chance quality, while goals remain the realized outcomes.
Independent educational research. Examples are hypothetical unless stated otherwise. Read current exchange rules and fund documents for product terms.
Read the FSPI introduction →