How is the NHL FSPI calculated?

How the calculation works

Each NHL team starts at 7,500 index points. During the season, recorded hockey statistics and qualifying milestones add or subtract points. To calculate an update, multiply each event count by its scoring weight, apply the appropriate seasonal factor, and add the contributions to the previous index level.

In compact form: new index = previous index + seasonal factor × (statistical points + applicable game-milestone points). Monthly and regular-season awards are added separately at their regular-season factor. These are the public index rules, not the fitted weights in our forecasting model.

The complete scoring table

The August 2026 methodology contains 53 scoring components. We have kept the official Points Attribution Table (PAT) numbers beside each one so you can cross-reference the source document. Entries 54 and 55 are the postseason and regular-season factors. Every value below is measured in index points per event or qualifying milestone.

For game statistics and game-end milestones, the listed weights are multiplied by 1.5 in the playoffs. Monthly and regular-season awards remain at 1.0. Source: FutureSports, August 2026 methodology, Appendix A; this is our explanatory presentation of the numerical rules.

How to read the statistical categories

Goals are classified by the officially recorded strength situation: even strength, power play or short-handed. Pulling a goalie adds an empty-net classification when appropriate; it does not replace that strength classification.

A shot on goal is a recorded attempt that scores or would score if the goalie did not stop it. A blocked attempt is different: a defending skater stops it before it becomes a shot on goal. A save belongs to the goalie. Keeping these categories straight prevents an attempted shot from being counted as both a block and a save.

Faceoff wins and losses record which side gains possession from the draw. A takeaway credits a recorded dispossession; a giveaway records a loss of possession through an error. They are distinct official statistics, not counts that should be forced to match. “Opposition saves,” “hit taken,” and “shot blocked by opponent” refer to what the opposing team did against the team whose index you are calculating.

Use the NHL’s official classifications when available. If a data source omits a classification, that is a data gap—not permission to label a guessed event official.

1. Statistics recorded during the game

Use each officially recorded count. A goal also counts as a shot on goal when recorded that way; scoring categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Empty-net entries are adjustments added to the relevant goal-strength entry.

2. Goal and save-percentage thresholds

Check these once the game is complete. “Exactly 5” does not also apply when a team scores 6. Goals for these thresholds include regulation and overtime but exclude shootout attempts.

3. Game results and other game-end awards

An overtime or shootout loss receives the overtime-loss treatment instead of the regulation-loss penalty. “Game clinching goal” has a narrower definition than an ordinary game-winning goal; see the explanation below.

4. Monthly awards

These compare regular-season totals across the league within a calendar month, not per-game rates. A month must contain at least 100 completed NHL regular-season games league-wide. Overtime counts; playoff games do not. Each qualifying award is 125 points in magnitude.

5. Regular-season awards

Season totals use regular-season games, including overtime. Conference position follows the NHL’s official final standings. Monthly awards and season awards are separate; earning one does not replace the other.

6. Stanley Cup award

The Cup winner receives a base award of 750, multiplied by the postseason factor of 1.5, for an actual addition of 1,125 index points. There are no separate awards in this table for simply qualifying for the playoffs or winning an earlier playoff round.

The two seasonal factors

Apply the postseason factor to playoff game statistics, game-end milestones, and the Cup award. It is a multiplier on the contribution, not a 50% uplift to the entire accumulated index.

A 3–1 regulation win, worked through

Consider a fictional regular-season game, starting from 7,500. Our team scores two even-strength goals and one power-play goal, and allows one even-strength goal. It takes 32 shots on goal and faces 26; its goalie makes 25 saves and the opponent makes 29. There are no empty-net goals, qualifying game-clinching goal, extended penalties, misconducts, ejections, or monthly/season awards. Other counts are shown in the table.

This example uses the actual scoring weights above. The game and its statistics are invented so you can follow the accounting; it is not an official historical index close.

Reading the result

The win itself contributes only 10 of the 79.4 points. The rest comes from the game’s statistical balance and milestones. Scoring three goals has no separate goal-count bonus; allowing exactly one does. There is no shutout award because the opponent scored. The save-percentage award uses the underlying ratio, not a rounded display that could push a value across the cutoff.

If the same statistical line occurred in a playoff game without a Cup award, the contribution would be 79.4 × 1.5 = 119.1 points. Starting from the same hypothetical 7,500, that would produce 7,619.1. A win does not have a fixed index-point value, and the index is not simply the NHL standings-points table.

How empty-net goals are scored

For an even-strength empty-net goal, the scoring team receives +12 for the goal and −2 for the empty-net adjustment: +10 before other applicable entries. A recorded shot on goal adds another +1.5. For the conceding team, −12 for the goal allowed is partly offset by +7.5 for the empty-net classification. Apply the corresponding power-play or short-handed goal weight if that is the official strength classification.

That +7.5 entry for allowing an empty-net goal can look odd on its own. It partially offsets the ordinary goal-allowed deduction; it does not make conceding the goal beneficial.

Clinching goals, overtime and shootouts

The +30 game-clinching award is not awarded for every ordinary game-winning goal. In regulation, it requires the eventual winner to take a one-goal lead in the final two minutes and finish with that one-goal winning margin. The winning overtime goal qualifies; a shootout attempt does not.

An overtime or shootout loss is −5 rather than −10; do not add both. Shutouts concern regulation and overtime goals. In a game that stays 0–0 through overtime, both teams receive +50 for a team shutout and −50 because the opponent also shut them out. The final win/loss entries are still separate. Shootout goals do not turn that into a 1–0 scoring-threshold game.

Penalty classifications and tied awards

A minor is −1; the methodology includes penalty shots in this category. Extended penalties are −2 and include double minors and five-minute majors, with an exclusion for fighting majors assessed simultaneously and evenly to both teams. A ten-minute misconduct is −4; an ejection is −10. Use the separately applicable official classifications rather than multiplying total penalty minutes by a single penalty rate.

If two or more eligible clubs tie for a monthly or seasonal milestone, each receives the full award or deduction. A two-team tie for most monthly goals therefore gives each +125, not +62.5. There is no need to invent a tiebreak rule to choose just one team.

When the number becomes an official close

In-game updates and an official close are different publications. The methodology specifies a 9:00 a.m. Central Time publication on the following Calculation Day, using verified official data available before publication. Monthly and season milestones also have publication timing rules. A delayed official classification can therefore matter even after the scoreboard is final.

The annual reset is scheduled for the Calculation Day 32 calendar days after the last Stanley Cup Final game. Within the season, the index has no zero floor. The 7,500 starting value is a reference point, not a guarantee that the index stays positive. For a particular futures settlement, the contract’s expiry and reference-close rules also matter.

Where our model enters the picture

Everything above describes how known events become index points. Our forecast estimates future events and milestones, then applies scoring to possible future paths. It is therefore possible to implement the scoring perfectly and still forecast poorly. Historical reconstruction may also require inferred classifications; such values must remain labeled research reconstructions rather than official historical closes.

The tables explain changes in a team’s recorded score. Changes in a forecast also depend on the model inputs, forecast horizon, and uncertainty at the time of the run.